As Vermont and New York’s Hudson Valley attempt to dry off and pick up the pieces from the disastrous flood event Sunday and Monday, forecasters are warily watching the potential for more heavy rain between Thursday and the weekend.
The National Weather Service has placed both hard-hit areas, and much of the Northeast, under a Level 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall Thursday. That risk will continue into Friday in Vermont and locations to the east.
Forecasters at the Weather Service say rainfall chances are poised to continue at least into the weekend, if not a bit longer.
“This may not be over,” Gov. Phil Scott (R) said at a news conference Wednesday. “With rain in the forecast and nowhere for it to go, we could see waters rise again.”
The extreme flooding in Vermont — the worst since Irene in 2011 and the great flood of 1927 in some areas — was caused by rainfall of 5 to 7 inches across much of the state, and locally up to 9 inches. Six to 8 inches of rain triggered the severe flooding in the Hudson Valley.
The latest on flooding in Vermont
Despite Monday’s historic torrents, Vermont had not recorded any fatalities from the flooding as of 8 a.m. Wednesday, Commissioner of Public Safety Jennifer Morrison said at the news conference.
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More than 200 rescues and 100 evacuations had taken place since Sunday, Morrison said. She said numerous water rescues are ongoing in Lamoille County, the hardest-hit area. There, emergency responders rescued 32 people and numerous animals overnight, she said.
Although multiple communities are on boil-water notices, power outages in the state have dropped below 1,000, Morrison said.
President Biden issued an emergency declaration for Vermont on Tuesday, and FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said damage assessments are underway.
Sen. Peter Welch (D) said FEMA is dealing with an “unprecedented” number of national disasters and called for an increase in funding for the agency.
“Every Vermonter whose home has been affected is just a long, very tough road ahead,” he said. He added, “It’s tough, it’s long and the recovery begins today.”
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Officials also addressed concerns about the Wrightsville Dam in Montpelier. Vermont Emergency Management Interim Director Eric Forand warned of “misinformation” about the dam’s “failure or imminent failure.”
“Not accurate,” he said. “It’s acting in the way it’s supposed to act.”
He said the dam has “stabilized” and is now at reduced risk. He said the state is monitoring the dam closely.
The flooding had heavily impacted the state’s transportation infrastructure. Joe Flynn, the state’s transportation secretary, said 46 roads remained closed and seven partially opened Wednesday.
Share this articleShareRisk of excessive rainfall Thursday and Friday
The prospect for more rain comes as waters continued receding across most of Vermont and the Hudson Valley on Wednesday, when — aside from a few pop-up showers and storms — mostly dry weather was forecast. The Lamoille, Winooski and Mad rivers — previously at major flood to record flood stages between Montpelier and Burlington — had fallen to minor flooding levels at many gauges Wednesday morning.
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But farther south, water levels were still cresting along the Connecticut River in interior Connecticut; significant flooding was occurring in Portland, south of Hartford. And the dry weather is forecast to be short-lived throughout the region.
End of carouselOn Thursday, showers and storms are predicted to be numerous in the Northeast — especially in the second half of the day. The Weather Service cautions that rainfall rates could reach 1 to 1.5 inches per hour and that peak totals could reach 2 to 3 inches or more where storms hit repeatedly.
Although the coverage and duration of rain is expected to be considerably more limited than Sunday and Monday, soils are super saturated in much of the region and only modest amounts of rain could trigger more flooding. As little as half an inch of rain in an hour could cause waterways and poor drainage areas to overflow, according to the Weather Service.
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Eastern New York to central New England has seen three to five times more rain than normal this month, Weather Service data shows.
The front responsible for Thursday’s rain will shift the threat for flooding somewhat eastward Friday, with a focus from Vermont southward to Connecticut, then east to western Maine and eastern Massachusetts. The front could trigger another round of torrential downpours over saturated soils, leading to new outbursts of flash flooding while dropping up to 3 inches or more of rain in some locations.
The forecast for the weekend and beyond
By Saturday morning, most of the region, from central New York to central Maine, is forecast to see 1 to 2 inches of rain, with some locations topping 2 or 3 inches. Higher totals are possible locally.
Another ribbon of unusually high moisture content may point itself at the region Saturday night and Sunday night.
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Through the weekend, including Thursday and Friday, the Weather Service is forecasting 2 to 4 inches of rain in parts of New York and New England.
Additional rounds of rain may persist through at least Monday in western New England and Tuesday to the east. Thereafter, the pattern appears somewhat less favorable for daily downpours, but forecast confidence is low that far into the future.
Why does rain keep coming?
The weather pattern that fostered the extreme rainfall Sunday and Monday largely remains in place. Essentially, weather systems are stuck: High pressure is entrenched near Greenland and low pressure near the Hudson Bay. The flow from the south between these pressure zones is transporting tremendous amounts of moisture northward.
A slow-moving front, which will become draped over the Northeast, is also caught between these two pressure zones and is serving as a focus for the moisture surging northward, priming the atmosphere for additional rounds of pounding rainfall.
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